Deloitte’s iPad Sales Predictions Right On The Money
Rob Starr, Big4.com
July 16, 2010
A recent update to Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2010 has some findings that would have been quite anticipated given the state of the economy, but that the demand for mobile searches was slower than expected was a little surprising.
In a world where we expect all things technological, and that the future of commerce and community will is in cyberspace, the news that laptop sales were robust is almost not worth mentioning since the prices for this technology keeps falling, but even the fact the demand for cloud computing has stalled might raise a few eyebrows.
Even with the mobile data congestion that’s starting to become as common as LA smog, the report goes on to say consumers are starting to see tablets like the new Apple iPad are more than just toys and can be adapted to carry out a number of business functions.
Technology Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Research for Deloitte LLP (UK) Director Paul Lee says that consumer patterns and preferences are changing the way IT does business. He says the workforce is becoming increasingly more mobile and demanding at the same time that they have not only affordable prices for the items they buy but sustainable ones as well.
Deloitte had a key number absolutely right. They indicate that tablet sales are much higher than expected and will have a significant impact on the computing industry. In January 2010, Deloitte predicted that sales would be in the double digits for the first year, more than 10 million units, while Wall Street’s estimates were much lower at approximately one million. Sales were three million units in the first 80 days alone. Deloitte now expects 12-13 million units sold within the first year, with annual sales of 40-50 million devices per year two-to-three years out.
See our blog post on Deloitte’s iPad sales predictions at “Deloitte Expects Tens of Millions iPads Sold” http://www.big4.com/?page=blog_item&url=deloitte-expects-tens-of-millions-ipads-sold-462.
Also, see our analysis on the revised number of iPads expected to be sold based on the clarification in the iPad price, “Apple iPad Priced at $499, Impact on Deloitte Study”
There were some interesting forecasts for the future as well. Consider that in 2014 there will be 600-700 million smartphones sold, which will exceed the number of computers sold. Smartphones will lead the industry when it comes to innovation. In 2014, mobile phone operating systems, visual search and data proliferation look to be the leading industry issues. And whoever owns the smartphone operating system is likely to dominate the smartphone appliance market, and drive the innovation path in that sector.
Text search will give way to additional improvements, most notably, classification of shapes and colors, which means an image can be tagged automatically and a search performed.
Data on behavior of consumers, both personally and professionally will proliferate, which will not only lead to deep analytical capabilities, but also create challenges in analyzing these volumes of data. As an example, a satellite navigation company is generating half a trillion journeys every few months and making these journey times available to its customers.
The congestion problems will undoubtedly work themselves out as we trudge on toward the world of E.M. Forster’s ‘The Machine Stops.’
Deloitte, iPad, predictions, technology, smart phones, computers, behavior, sales