Holiday Sales to See Smaller Boost

By Michael Foster, Big4.com Blogger

Holiday sales may increase by up to 4 per cent, according to a new study by Deloitte.

The Big4 firm predicts a rise in holiday sales of 3.5 to 4 per cent as consumers spend more after the election, said Carl Steidtmann, Chief Economist for Deloitte. “While consumers turned out in the summer to give retailers solid gains for a few months, that pace may be difficult to sustain through the end of the year. Consumers and businesses alike may pause in advance of the election; however, retailers may benefit from a post-election consumer spending boost,” Steidtmann said of the study’s results.

High gasoline prices and stubbornly slow housing and job markets persist in slowing consumer spending, Steidtmann said, but a modest jump could result in holiday sales climbing to between $920 billion and $925 billion.

The 4 per cent increase in spending that this would represent is below the 5.9 per cent increase that 2011 saw over 2010.

Deloitte said nonstore sales might increase by 15 to 17 per cent as online channels spur ecommerce adoption amongst consumers.

Deloitte Vice Chairman Alison Paul suggested that smartphone shoppers using mobile applications in store and mobile channels will encourage greater ecommerce activity, but that crossovers between ecommerce and in-store purchases will become increasingly common. “This holiday season, retailers’ most lucrative customers may be the ones they engage across physical and virtual storefronts,” Paul said.