Ernst & Young: Scottish ITEM Club forecast

By Rob Starr, Content Manager, Big4.com

According to the latest Ernst & Young Scottish ITEM Club report, Scotland’s overall output decline of 4% over the past four years puts it on a par with the troubled Spanish economy. Dougie Adams, senior adviser to the Ernst & Young Scottish ITEM Club comments:

“Slight growth should be generated in Scotland next year, so long as the worst fears over the eurozone and US budget prove overblown. However, the point at which the economy regains its past peak has been pushed beyond 2014. Taking account of Scotland’s increasing population, it will be at least 2016 before output-per-head surpasses pre-crisis levels,” he said. “While growth has been hard to find in the developed world of late, Scotland and the UK are in the unenviable set of economies that are still producing less than they did at the outset of the financial crisis.

According to the forecast, Scotland is uncomfortably far down the export rankings, trailing a number of eurozone countries with well-recognised competitiveness problems.At sector level, Scotland had outperformed the rest of the UK in Business & Financial Services & Finance by mid-2012, but performance has been poorer in three other heavyweight areas – the Public Sector, Construction and Transport & Communication.