By Rob Starr, Content Manager, Big4.com
An updated lodging forecast released today by PwC US anticipates slower revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) growth in 2012 and 2013, compared to the previous outlook. The updated estimates in PwC Hospitality Directions US are based on a quarterly econometric analysis of the lodging sector, using historical statistics supplied by Smith Travel Research and other data providers, and an updated macroeconomic forecast released from Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.
The outlook for lower RevPAR growth reflects impacts from three sources: third quarter results that came in lower than anticipated, particularly due to performance in September; a more pessimistic macroeconomic outlook, which now calls for slower growth in the second half of 2012 than previously anticipated; and the effects of Superstorm Sandy. Despite these challenges, lodging demand and, more importantly, pricing, are expected to remain on positive trajectories. Overall, based on the analysis referenced above, PwC expects lodging demand in 2012 to increase 2.9 percent, which combined with still restrained supply growth of 0.5 percent, is anticipated to boost occupancy levels to 61.4 percent, the highest since 2007.
Scott D. Berman, principal and U.S. industry leader, hospitality & leisure, PwC comments:
“The lodging recovery is being tested by a period of slower economic growth and recent disruptions related to Superstorm Sandy,” he said. “Despite these challenges, the trajectory of the recovery remains positive and we anticipate higher occupancy levels and stronger average daily rate growth in 2013.”